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Dollar under pressure on euro strength

The US dollar weakened last week, held back by the strength in the euro, which rose 0.69 percent to a high of $1.1924 on November 24. The currency rose after a measure of German business confidence hit a record high of 117.5 during the month, beating economists’ estimates.

The data came after Germany, the EU’s largest economy, reported stronger-than-expected growth in exports, which expanded by 1.7pc over the quarter compared forecasts of 1pc. The country’s economic output increased by 0.8pc during the July to September quarter.

The strength in exports and production helped to offset weaker consumer spending and business investments within the country, making it one of the best years of growth for Germany and propelling the euro to fresh highs.

The euro rose despite political uncertainty in Germany earlier in the week, when talks to form the country’s next government collapsed and drew concerns over the future leadership position of chancellor Angela Merkel.

Pressure on the currency abated when Germany’s Social Democrats said it would consider talks with Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic party to form a government.

Fed minutes

Meanwhile, the US dollar index was lower after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October 31-November 1 meeting were released November 22.

Fed officials agreed that US economic growth and employment remain on the upswing, but they were less certain about whether persistently low inflation was transitory or permanent. The Fed adjusts monetary policy after considering US employment and inflation levels.

Fed officials also struck a dovish tone when discussing US financial markets, warning that asset markets had become “imbalanced” and “overextended.” There were concerns that a sharp fall in the price of assets such as stocks, which have hit an all-time high, could have a significantly negative impact on the economy.

While the central bank continued to guide for gradual future hikes in US interest rate hikes, market uncertainty over the pace at which the hikes will take place is reported to be on the rise.

At the close on November 24, the Myanmar kyat was trading at $1363 and 1,619.

What to look out for

A slew of economic data due this week should keep the currency markets exciting. The British pound could see some volatility this week after the UK announces GDP figures for the third quarter on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the US will also release GDP figures for the same quarter.

It will likely be another volatile week for the euro and the greenback, with the EU scheduled to release inflation figures for the month of November and employment figures for the month of October on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the US is also set to release similar data on the same day, while Japan and South Korea will announce GDP and inflation data too.

A slew of US manufacturing and production data will be announced Friday, which could see the dollar heavily traded towards the end of the week.

For more details : https://www.mmtimes.com/news/dollar-under-pressure-euro-strength.html

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